NFL Football Handicapping

Week 12 Picks Coutesy Guest Handicapper

Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:25:00 +0000

Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Football.

This could be the best week of the year. Most of you have already read my Thanksgiving Day NFL picks for this week.

And for those of you following my weekly NFL picks and using them, I went 10 for 10 last week. I made some big money last week and am going to roll it all into this week. I hope all of you were as lucky as I was. Now I am moving on to my NFL Week 12 betting picks for Sunday.

NFL Week 12 Expert Picks:

Washington (3-7, Road: 0-5) 1:00 pm EST

Philadelphia (6-4, Home: 3-2) FOX

Washington has no coach, no QB and the top 2 RBs are out with injury. Expect McNabb and co to roll over the Redskins.

Washington Redskins +9

Philadelphia Eagles -9

O /U 40

My pick: Eagles will cover. Under.

Miami (5-5, Road: 2-3) 1:00 pm EST

Buffalo (3-7, Home: 1-3) CBS

The Dolphins can’t defend the pass and the Bills can’t defend the run. Miami’s run game is better than Buffalo’s passing game. The winner is obvious.

Miami Dolphins -3

Buffalo Bills +3

O /U 40

My pick: The Dolphins will blow ‘em out. Over.

Jacksonville (6-4, Road: 2-3) 4:05 pm EST

San Francisco (4-6, Home: 3-2) CBS

The Jaguars are starting to smell the playoffs, but the 49ers are hitting their stride even with the problems at the QB position. The Jags aren’t a strong road team but if both teams finish the season strong they could make a run in January.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3

San Francisco 49ers -3

O /U 41

My pick: The 49ers will win by a FG or less. Under.

Kansas City (3-7, Road: 2-3) 4:05 pm EST

San Diego (7-3, Home: 3-2) CBS

San Diego is the best team over the last 4 weeks. The Chiefs used all of their luck up in beating the Steelers last week…don’t expect them wins from them this year.

Kansa City Chiefs +13

San Diego -13

O /U 44

My pick: The Chargers in a blowout. Over.

Chicago (4-6, Road: 1-4) 4:15 pm EST

Minnesota (9-1, Home: 5-0) FOX

The Bears are a team in shambles and have to go to Minnesota to play Favre in late November. This is an easy call.

Chicago Bears +10

Minnesota Vikings -10

O /U 46

My pick: Vikings will cover. Over.

Monday November 30, 2009

New England (7-3, Road: 1-3) 8:30 pm EST

New Orleans (10-0, Home: 5-0) ESPN

This could be a Superbowl XLIV preview. Both teams need to win this game, but only one can. Expect Bill Belichick and the Pats D to come in with a few new defensive schemes to confuse Drew Brees. I believe the Pats will win this game as a warning to their detractors.

New England Patriots +3

New Orleans Saints -3

O /U 56

My pick: upset by the Patriots. Over.

Week #9 Handicapping - Courtesy Our Sponsor

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 20:00:00 +0000

NFL Week 9 is here with 2 undefeated teams left. The New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts. And based on their matchups it would seem that they will go undefeated for at least one more week.

The Vikings are on a bye week. The Broncos host the defending Superbowl Champions. A surprisingly strong Miami squad visits New England this week. The Bolts and G-Men face off.

These are the top 5 games in week 9.

Here are my NFL Week 9 Expert Picks:

Arizona 4-3 (Road: 3-0) 1:00pm ET

Chicago 4-3 (Home: 3-0) TV: FOX

Both teams are hard to figure out. I don’t expect another sub-par performance by the Cardinals but I’m leaning on Chicago to win because of a home field advantage at this time of the year.

Arizona Cardinals +3

Chicago Bears-3

O /U 44

My pick: the Bears by a field goal. Over.

Baltimore 4-3 (Road: 1-2) 1:00pm ET

Cincinnati 5-2 (Home: 2-2) TV: CBS

The Bengals are coming of a bye week and the Ravens had a huge win against the Broncos. However the Ravens have allowed too many big plays and Carson Palmer will try to hit Ochocinco, Coles and Henry downfield early and often. And don’t forget Cedric Benson, who has become a top RB in the league this season.

Baltimore Ravens -3

Cincinnati Bengals +3

O /U 43

My pick: Upset by the Bengals. Over.

Houston 5-3 (Road: 3-1) 1:00pm ET

Indianapolis 7-0 (Home: 3-0) TV: CBS

Both teams have tremendous offenses and I expect a shootout. I don’t believe that the Colts are a 16-0 team, but they will go undefeated for 1 more week.

Houston Texans +9

Indianapolis Colts -9

O /U 47

My pick: Indy. Over.

Miami 3-4 (Road: 1-2) 1:00pm ET

New England 5-2 (Home: 4-0) TV: CBS

Last year the Patriots got burned by Miami’s wildcat formation however that was without Tom Brady. Even those the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that can truly use the wildcat it is hard to believe that coach Belichick won’t have a counter this time around.

Miami Dolphins +10

New England Patriots -10

O /U 46

My pick: the Patriots. Under.

Carolina 3-4 (Road: 2-2) 4:05pm ET

New Orleans 7-0 (Home: 4-0) TV: FOX

Don’t expect Delhomme to be turnover free every week. This could be the Darren Sharper.

Carolina Panthers +13

New Orleans Saints -13

O /U 52

My pick: Saints. Over.

San Diego 4-3 (Road: 2-1) 4:15pm ET

NY Giants 5-3 (Home: 2-1) TV: CBS

If the Giants want to make the playoffs this is a must win game. The Chargers are hitting their stride after a slow start but they have been going up against mediocre teams at best. Winning in NY against the G-Men is a difficult task.

San Diego Chargers +5

NY Giants -5

O /U 52

My pick: Giants. Over.

Tennessee 1-6 (Road: 0-4) 4:15pm ET

San Francisco 3-4 (Home: 2-1) TV: CBS

The 49’ers gave the Colts a run for their money last week and conventional thinking has it that the Titans should be an easy win for them. But the Colts didn’t have Chris Johnson, the best running back of the 09-10 season. Expect Vince Young to manage the game well with a big dose of Johnson.

Tennessee Titans +4

San Francisco 49ers -4

O /U 41

My pick: Upset by the Titans.

Dallas 5-2 (Road: 2-1) 8:20pm ET

Philadelphia 5-2 (Home: 3-1) TV: NBC

This is the must watch game of the week. A divisional matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles. I don’t like the Cowboys’ chances this week. The Eagles have too much firepower for the Cowboys to defend. This game has playoff implications in the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys +3

Philadelphia Eagles -3

O /U 47

My pick: Eagles. Over.

Monday November 9, 2009

Pittsburgh 5-2 (Road: 1-2) 8:30pm ET

Denver 6-1 (Home: 3-0) TV: ESPN

Denver was a home underdog against Dallas, New England and Baltimore and they won all those games. Why should this one be different?

My pick: upset by the Broncos.

Week #6 Results

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:25:00 +0000

Week #6 NFL Selections

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

2 Unit **Best Bet** Atlanta Falcons -3 - won

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

1.5 Unit Play Arizona Cardinals +3 - won

St. Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

1 Unit Play Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 - loss

Week #5 - Current Results

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 13:37:00 +0000

Week #5 NFL Selections

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

2 Unit **Best Bet** New England -3 - Lost

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs

1 Unit Play Kansas City +9 - Won

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers

1 Unit Play Atlanta +3 - Won

Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers

1 Unit Play Carolina Panthers -4 - Lost

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

1 Unit Play Indianapolis -3.5 - Won

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

1 Unit Play New York Jets -1.5 - lost

Week #5 Game of the Week

Sun, 11 Oct 2009 01:02:00 +0000

NFL Game of the Week - New England vs. Denver

by Tim Furious

When Josh McDaniels took the reigns in Denver, things started to implode pretty damn quickly. He was forced to unload Jay Cutler and take on Kyle Orton, and nearly lost the services of Brandon Marshall. Quickly though, the Broncos thundered out to an undefeated record SU and ATS and have quietly put forth the best defense in the league. You read the last part of that sentence correctly.

Denver Broncos allows 239.8 total yards (2 nd), 162.5 passing yards against (3 rd) and 77.3 rushing yards against (5 th) while holding opponents to 6.5 points per game. Credit Brain Dawkins arrival in town. Credit whatever the hell makes you sleep at night, but the proof is there. With wins over Dallas, Oakland, Cleveland and Cincinnati, the Broncos have held their own against some low-end talent in the NFL. Now they get one of the most dangerous teams in the entire league in their own house.

Josh McDaniels has to overcome a hex that hangs over all of Bill Belichik’s mentees. If McDaniels is to avoid the same fate that has fell upon guys like Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weis and Eric Mangini, then he’ll have to prove he can hold his footing against his former boss. Who’ve you got – the teacher, or the student?

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NFL Week 4 Recap - Monday Night Football was a Classic

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:02:00 +0000

NFL Week 4 Recap - Monday Night Football was a Classic

by D.S. Williamson

The New England Patriots took everything that was written about them being done and turned it into two straight victories over the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens decided to shut down the Tom Brady to Randy Moss connection with double coverage. Brady saw it and used his other weapons to dismantle the Ravens D, tossing passes to Wes Welker and tight-end Benjamin Watson and using running backs Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor in the flats.

On defense, the Patriots somehow found a way to keep Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco from throwing for 300 yards. Flacco ended up with 264. Ray Rice rushed for 103 yards, but it didn’t matter. The Patriots’ D was good enough to keep the Ravens from exploding in this game offensively.

The Patriots’ victory, along with the Jets loss, suddenly puts New England at the top of the NFC East race again. New England is back and NFL betting fans should keep them in mind when making wagers.

New Orleans Welcomes Mark Sanchez to the NFL

Did anyone believe that the New Orleans Saints defense would be the first to really welcome rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez to the NFL? The BetUS football odds makers had a clue in this game as they made the Saints a 6 ½ point favorite in the NFL sportsbook, but nobody really believed that the Saints’ defense would cause 4 turnovers, 3 interceptions and a fumble by Sanchez, and put up 14 points.

The Saints’ D is becoming scary good. Because the Saints offense is balanced enough to run or pass, New Orleans is easily the best team in the NFL right now. They can beat you in a lot of ways and might be even better after their bye this week.

Pittsburgh Shows Up

The Steelers showed up, finally, this past Sunday by knocking around the San Diego Chargers 38 to 28 as 5 ½ point favorites. The biggest news to come out of the game is that Pittsburgh RB Rashard Mendenhall ran for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. With a running game now at their disposal, the Steelers are once again one of the favorites from the AFC to get into the Super Bowl.

As for San Diego, it’s the same old story. They are overrated on defense and offense and have only covered one spread this year. Forget betting on the Chargers in 2009. Pittsburgh? They could turn into a profit making machine.

Can Everyone Agree that Denver is Real?

At the two minute mark in the game Kyle Orten threw a 51 yard pass to Brandon Marshall for a touchdown. That highlight reel score moved Denver to 4 and 0 ATS and 4 and 0 straight-up. Only one other team is 4 and 0 SU and 4 and 0 ATS in the NFL, the New Orleans Saints.

The Broncos will keep playing tough. If there was any chance for them to pack it in, it would have been against the Cowboys this past Sunday. The Broncos are for real.

Favre vs. Packers Showdown Proves to Be All About Favre

And all about the Minnesota defense. The truth is that Favre was exceptional on Monday night. He threw for 3 touchdown passes and 271 yards in vintage Favre form. Of the 24 out of 31 completions, many were off balance tosses that were right on the money. It really looked like he stepped his game up in a really entertaining football game.

As good as Favre was, the Minnesota Vikings defense was that much better. They did an absolute number on Aaron Rodgers, particularly Jared Allen who had 4 ½ sacs.

What’s more important for Minnesota backers is that the Vikings not only beat the Packers straight-up but they also beat the 4 ½ spread.

Week #4 NFL Football Picks Review

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 01:58:00 +0000

Week #4 NFL Selections

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

1 Unit Play New England Patriots -1 - won

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

1 Unit Play Cincinnati Bengals -6 - loss

New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints

1 Unit Play New Orleans Saints -7 - won

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

1 Unit Play Minnesota Vikings -3.5 - won

Solid 3-1 Week.

Week #3 NFL Football Selections Review

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 12:02:00 +0000

Week #3 NFL Selections

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

2 Unit **Best Bet** Houston Texans -3.5 - loss

Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams

1 Unit Play Green Bay Packers -6.5 - won

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

1 Unit Play Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 - won

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

1 Unit Play Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 - loss

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

1 Unit Play Denver Broncos -1.5 - won

Weekly NFL Football Handicapping Odds

Sat, 26 Sep 2009 23:23:00 +0000

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Good Luck with all your week #3 NFL football handicapping.

Week #3 - Free NFL Football Picks, Courtesy our Guest NFL Handicapper

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 03:10:00 +0000

Rough way to start the season losing both Carolina and Jacksonville. But, week 3 is when the money starts being made. I already have my eye on as many as five games including a possible 4*!

2* Tampa Bay +7 over N.Y. Giants (Probable upgrade to 3*)

I love Tampa in this game! This is a perfect situational spot for the Bucs to upsets the G Men. Tampa is off a road loss, while the Giants are off two consecutive divisional game including a last second win at Dallas in primetime. This has letdown written all over it. There are two solid situational trends favoring the Bucs. One is 209-103 ATS and the other 41-17 ATS. This early in the year you have to look at stats with a grain of salt because there have been two games to analyze. But, the Giants running game has been struggling averaging only 3.5 YPR (25th in league). Against the run they are second to last in the league averaging 6.7 YPR. Their passing offense and defense has been strong being ranked 3rd and 7th, respectively. Tampa's rushing game has been strong averaging 4.6 YPR (8th) and this will allow them to run on the Giants weak D and eat up clock. Their passing game has been average at 20th in the league. Their weak point is their pass D which is the only reason I'm not making this a 4*. The Giants are +4 in turnover which has helped them in their 2 wins. Turnovers are 85% random in the NFL so this shouldn't last. I think TB has a chance for the upset so I would recommend a small wager (0.2 units) at +250.

2* Buffalo +6 over New Orleans (probable upgrade to 3*)

I think this line is way too high for a New Orleans team whose defense not proved much this year. Buffalo is coming off a good game versus TB and on paper are a much better team than the Saints. The Bills are ranked 3rd in yards/rush and 7th in passing (YPPA). Defensively they are 8th against the rush (3.1 YPR) and 12th against the pass (6.5 YPPA). The Saints running game is pretty good at 4.5 YPR. Brees is a top notch QB, there's no denying that, but I think the Bills game will contain him to get the win. Defensively the Saints are merely average allowing 6.7 YPPA (18th). Don't let the Saints win over the Eagles fool you, this was largely a product of their +4 turnover margin. I think Buffalo is a solid team and can pull off the upset and recommend wagering a small amount on the money on this game as well.

2* Tennessee +3 over N.Y. Jets

I can't see Tennessee going 0-3. They still have one of the best defenses in the league. They only allow an amazing 1.9 YPR (1st in league). This will put pressure on rookie QB M. Sanchez. He may have looked strong in his first two games, but he is still a rookie and will be facing the best D in the league. The Titans running attack is 2nd in the league averaging 6.4 YPR and face a Jets D that is 12th. The Jets are coming off a huge win versus N.E. and are in a prime letdown spot. I like the Titans.

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