NFL Football Handicapping
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A Good Handicapper Does not Equal a Good Gambler
You can pick winners. You can evaluate numbers such as trends, systems, streaks and other stats. You are on the ball in determining how motivation or situations will affect a team. You can spot a “live” underdog from a mile away. More often than not, you are on the right side. Notwithstanding, despite this, at the end of week, month or season, you find your bankroll depleted. If you fall into this category you are not alone. There are many sports investors that fit this prototype and it is not an easy situation to get out of.
Although it is difficult, it is not impossible to change your fortunes. Many a good handicapper has had to turn away and stop playing because they were good handicappers but poor gamblers. In this article I will look at some of the reasons that this occurs, but more importantly I will examine and outline some the steps that can be taken to avoid falling into this classification.
Overconfidence – Its one of the biggest oxymoron in this game, but also a truth of enormous proportions. Winning can be the kiss of death. When we win we push certain factors to the side. We don’t examine whether or not we got “lucky”. We put a big “W” beside the game and move on expecting that it will continue. But, when we lose, we look for excuses. Was the game “fixed”? Did I get bit by a bad line? Why did he throw up that three pointer for no reason? These are all questions that are frequently asked by the handicapper when they have to put an “L” beside the game. Winning makes you feel invincible. It gives you a sense of security and puts you on a perch that we often feel teetering but we never expect it to come crashing down. It’s when we think we have found an “easy” winner and can’t even comprehend the possibility of losing that we get shot back down to reality often with a stiff dent to bankroll.
Poor Money Management – Money management is so often stressed and yet, it continues to be ignored by the gambling masses. Will gamblers ever refrain from turning a blind eye to money management techniques? I think the sports books profits increasing year in and year out means no. But I will take this opportunity to re-visit the issue. When discussing money management, the problem is often not the fact that the player does not know its important. The problem is not that the player does not have a plan or know he needs a plan. Rather, the problem is that the player does not stick to the plan. It is easy to stray, especially if the plan is complicated. For those that are having problems establishing a money management plan, the easiest, most efficient and least complicated is to play 1% of your bankroll on each of your plays. In a sense, it can act like compound interest. If you have a $1000 bankroll then $10 per bet is your play that amount for the first season. Every year you re evaluate your bankroll and adjust the dollar amount accordingly. Increase it a little bit each season and you will be surprised how quickly it will grow. The problem is that most players feel stagnant playing the same amount on each for entire season, especially when they get “overconfident”.
Commitment - This factor can easily be tied into the “overconfidence” and “money management” issues. You must commit to doing your homework for every play you make and stick to a system that has showed you success. There are no short cuts to successful sports investing. Don’t do the crime, if you haven’t taken the time. If you cannot commit to handicapping properly than don’t play. There are plenty of times that you need a break from the daily grind or have other commitments that make handicapping difficult and or not important. Take a break. When you do place a bet, be honest to yourself and don’t cheat, it will hurt you in the long run.
Playing the Field – If you find a league or even a team for that matter that you are successful with; don’t stray. Many people make a good profit from following just basketball or just the Dallas Mavericks over/under. The person that is that good handicapper in conjunction with being a good gambler knows their strengths and builds their bankroll in a limited number of areas. They recognize who their breadwinners are and they ride them like a jockey in the
Obscuring Reality – Funny things happen in the sporting world, day in and day out. Accept this fact and keep investing rather than gambling. Stick to your routine, stay positive and never chase a loss. With a long list of games usually running nightly during this time of season including plenty of late games, it can become a difficult practice to take things in stride and take hit on a certain day.
Overall I believe that handicapping is just a portion of the responsibilities that a successful sports investor must make. It has become quite obvious to me as an observer and long time player that there are plenty of people out there that have what it take to be a good handicapper. It has also become painful reality that most of these people don’t practice the skills necessary to be a successful gambler. Hopefully this article has taken a small step towards many more people becoming both.
