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Field of Nightmares – The Base Path to Bankroll Destruction.

So you have decided to bet baseball this year. Every article you read preaches about the profits you can make. Sports Handicapping Services point out and offshore sportsbooks admit that all the sharpies make the most profit during the dog days of summer. And you have come up with a battle plan that is sure to build the bankroll. It is a simple plan with little ingenuity and sure-fire way to make coin. Right?

You are going to play the top pitchers and teams all season long.

After all, on the money line, there no spread to beat, you just have to get the win. Top pitchers on good hitting teams are abundant and you’re going to follow them all season and cash in. Wrong!

The easiest way for your bankroll to get burned during the baseball season is to ride the big favourites. Consider the following. With most premiere pitchers in the majors, you are going to have to lay between $160 and $240. So, on average we can deduce that you are going to play 2 units to win 1. The general calculated winning percentage that will turn you a profit is 53%. However when using the chalk numbers previously listed, all of a sudden magic winning percentage number has jumped to about 66%. Is it worth it? I would argue its not.

The key to making money in baseball is to look for value. Top pitchers do lose. The world champs will go on extended losing streaks. Homerun hitters will strike out. And finally, big chalk will lose. The value in being on these games is tremendous. We are not for a moment insinuating to blindly play on big underdogs. That would be foolish gambling, and Strictly Sports Winners tries to instill the knowledge that this game we play should be considered investing. Risking a large sum of money for a high-risk return of a small amount is worthless. But, risking a small amount of money for the potential of big profits is inviting.

In baseball, more than any sport, selecting winners should be based on current form. Yes, other factors should be taken into consideration. But finding a hot hitting team playing a team with a big name pitcher that has not been up to form recently is some of the best value found throughout the year at your offshore book.

Often times it may not even be the star pitcher that lets you down. There exist so many intangibles in a ball game that can truly reduce your odds of winning and remove any value you may see in laying a big number. We can mention poor managing decisions, weak bullpens, bad defensive plays, inexcusable base running errors, and shoddy defence as just a few.

To play on big favourites, you would need an enormous bankroll and patience not chase big losses that dent your bankroll severely. Easier said than done. We should be looking for consistent small profits over an extended period. With baseball being such a long season, with an abundant amount of games being played it is realistic to say that there are many, many games that offer us good value without having risk big units for marginal profits.

We are firm believers that it is very rarely in the sports investor's best interest to ever lay more that $140 on any baseball games. In reality a better profit can be turned over time playing small dogs that hit between 45% and 50% and your winnings would represent a bigger percentage of return on the dollars originally invested.

It sounds twisted in a sense but makes perfect sense. Baseball does offer the potential for the most profits but you have to remember that it does also bring the unrealized possibility of complete bankroll destruction. Don't run the big risks. Play with discipline and patience and reap the benefits of baseball long term. If not careful, your baseball season could become a long-winded nightmare.