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Avoid Post NFL Syndrome

How To Handicap After The Big Game

So the big game is over. The Superbowl is now complete and it signals the end of another NFL campaign. There were, as always, many surprises, new superstars emerging and depending on your handicapping skill and luck, dollars won or dollars lost. Regardless of your situation plus or negative now is time to take appropriate action to close your seasonal NFL file properly to make sure that when you re open it for next season it is not like you are starting from scratch.

First thing to recognize, the previous superbowl winner, continued to add to the list of previous champions that during the season were not only unsuccessful to repeat but were also a profitable bet against in specific situations. Now we circle this years winner, as potential good bet against next season especially early and in over valued situations. The superbowl hangover as it is often referred to should always be noted as a look ahead. Another situation to closely monitor is the newly minted superbowl loser hangover where we have seen the NFL runner up struggle immensely the following the year visiting the big game.

The next aspect you should look for and distinguish is to look for teams that did well ATS in the latter portion of the season or showed general marked improvement. Teams that showed signs of improvement often carry that into next season. Plenty of teams showed marked improvement in the second half of the season and it is important to monitor if they continue to make strides and key acquisition in the offseason which could propell them into an elite status despite the fact the record as a whole may be .500 or slightly better for the entire year.

Continuing on this theory of looking back to prepare ahead make notes of some of the teams that did not perform as expected but were hurt by serious injuries. We still do not know what the lines maker will do early on with these teams but there are two potential opportunities to profit. We may have the odds overcompensating or under compensating for these player returns and although we may not make plays on them, we should keep and eye on them to keep a potentially good opportunity open.

Now we can move on to more technical post season handicapping. We have always preached the importance of keeping good records of the games you played. And if you have been diligent in doing so, you can begin to reap some of the benefits. Look at each week in general and see where you strong suits were. Were betting underdogs profitable? Were home favourites a good bet for you? Did totals prove to be a struggle? Distinguish where you made money and where you lost money and make notes of this to use in the future.

Also, if you have been doing this for years, you can look back and see and if any developing patterns continued or were snapped. It is some work, but can prove to be beneficial if you take the time to do this. On an even more important note look at each underdog you played. How many of these dogs won outright. Most of the times the line does not come into play, therefore if a high number of dogs that you chose and cashed with won outright it may be worthy of considering playing more dogs on the money line next season. Keep in mind that although most of the time underdogs win outright, depending on which dogs you play this may increase or decrease your overall profits depending on which dogs you played. Also, this method is not for the novice of faint of heart as it is always more reassuring to have points in your back pocket. Nevertheless have a serious look at this part to see if your handicapping methods often grabs straight up underdog winners.

Next, if you follow any systems make sure that all your data and information is current and accurate. There is nothing worse than having spoiled data for systems that will ultimately help in your decision making process. Also, create a chart or some other way of tracking significant off-season moves. This will greatly increase your opportunity for having data in relation to possible team improvement or worsening on the depth chart. Coaching changes are already abundant and you will be surprised how quickly your memory lapses during the off-season.

Finally, examine your bankroll. Whether it is up or down do a quick recalculation of what your initials plays will be worth at the start of next season if you follow the traditional 1% of your bankroll per play that most money management strategies call for.

In conclusion if you take some or all these steps you will find that getting prepared for next season will be that much more easier come training camp. Although the games are over the potential to prepare and improve your handicapping is a yearlong process for the most part. Don't be discouraged if you lost and don't be over confident if you won. Either way next season is a new start and will present an opportunity to continue to increase bankroll or gain back some losses if you are willing to work. Every athlete, whether they won or lost has certain things they have to do following the big game. Yours may be different, but just as important. Have a good off-season and keep your eyes open for big news.