NFL Football Handicapping

Early Season NFL Football Handicapping - 2001

Get your helmets on, the NFL regular season kicks off in just a few short days and everyone seems ready to go. With more and more information available via the Internet there is more time that one could devote to handicapping their selections. Despite the "evolution" of sports betting there are a few theories that have stood the test of time in handicapping early season games in the NFL. This article will examine a few of the techniques that can help you get off to a quick start and also will serve as a reminder that not one month does a season make.

Last Year's Big Winners Being Overvalued

Odds makers, in general need to set a line that will bring in even money on both sides of a game. Therefore, they must be satisfied that the public will be split in opinion on a line, this includes those people that wager but do not follow football religiously. Because of this, often times, a good team from the previous year (e.g. The super bowl Champions) is overvalued and given an inflated line.

Although this is usually the case, this year may be different. Despite the fact that New England was 13-5-1 ATS last season there is still plenty of public opinion that last season was an aberration. This sense of public disbelief in their ability to win may sway me away from even looking at this theory. The early verdict is that they will not be overvalued but a big win in week 1 against Pittsburgh may change that quickly.

Last year the Ravens went 2-1 ATS in September games and finished 9-8 ATS overall while St. Louis went 1-2-1 ATS in September and a miserable 6-10-1 ATS overall following their Superbowl win. Denver opened up 0-4 ATS in 1999. My fear is that NE and their style of play is not really attractive to the public, yet their story is telling a few may be willing to jump on the bandwagon which could lead to some value.

It should also be noted that the Superbowl loser has been below or at .500 after their appearance in the big game the past few years. Last season the Giants finished 6-9-1 ATS. In 2000 the Titans finished 7-10 ATS, in 1999 Atlanta finished 6-10 ATS, 1998 saw Green Bay finish 8-8-1 ATS, and New England in 1997 went 9-9. St. Louis is a big public team and is coming off a super bowl appearance and their games may in fact present the best value.

New Head Coach + New attitude is Not Equal to More Wins

With a new head coach comes an air of optimism. When a team gets a new coach most believe that is instant remedy for a failing system. Although in the long run, in some cases this is true, the stats show that in recent years, especially with the game of football becoming more complex, the new head coach, which includes an infusion of new beliefs, systems and general "ways of doing things" has been a profitable go against at the wager window. All systems take time to understand, and more importantly perfect. Thus, the theory of playing against a new head coach is reasonable. If we dig further and evaluate a new coach's record when his team is favoured we find a nice system that has produced ATS winners at a 35-16-1 record since 1997. Is this an aberration or an up and coming system? Fade or follow? You decide. What I can say is that the research I have done on this subject, leads me to believe that this trend will continue and we will have more than a few opportunities to consider games that fall into this situation.

Last season there were only 3 instances where a new head coach was favoured the record was 2-1 ATS but one win is thrown out as it was played against a team with a new head coach. This season with big name coaches moving to talented teams in Washington, Indianapolis and Tampa this opportunity will be more prevalent. Overall last season new head coaches went an abysmal 3-11-2 ATS in games played in the month of September overall.

During the 2000 season, teams with new coaches were a combined 4-10-1 ATS in the month of September as a favourite. In 1999 the nine teams with new coaches were 2-9-0 when laying points. In 1998 and 1997 teams in the same situation were a combined 11-15-0 ATS when favoured. This is one system that is an excellent starting point for handicapping early season games.

Win Your Early Home Games

To make the playoffs, or at least have a chance, a team must win its home games. The media knows this, the coaches know this, and the water boys also know this. It's little wonder, that there is a nice trend that shows home teams that are evenly matched do well at home there first few games. In this case, laying this line, in most cases a straight up win will cash the ticket. Home field is an advantage, if you don't use it, you should at least be considering it.

Last season this situation only came up 5 times but the home team laying 3 points or less (not an underdog) was 5-0 ATS in September. Week one already presents this situation a few times and its worth your while considering it. An excellent situation would be Cincinnati at home laying 3 point or less as this angle and going against a new head coach would both be "live" in this contest.

Don't Let the Bubble Burst Without You

You would have been a very happy gambler had you jumped on the New England Patriots the second half of the season last season as well as Baltimore the year before and St. Louis in 2000. To be successful at this type of betting you need to be diligent watching the games and not just the scores and box results. It's the only real way of measuring if a team is for "real" or not. Try not to be a follower but a leader in playing what you see and believe in. If you watch and evaluate how they win, you can get a good indication if a team is for real. Don't be afraid to say to yourself I was wrong about my analysis about that team. Try not to stay stagnant in your original opinion. If a team is streaking, good or bad, take a ride. The streak won't end just because you are on them. Sometimes the media has a way of brainwashing the public in believing a team is actually better or worse than they are.

Homecomings and Revenge Situations

Early in the season we often see a lot of situations that are familiar. Handicap the whole game and not just one situation. Too many a times people will back a team just because a high profile player or coach is making a homecoming. Why? There is much other valuable information to review and assess before you make a decision. Use this as tool only and not a means for your selections in this situation. Don't bet on Green Bay just because Terry Glenn makes his return to New England. Continue the process and you will be surprised what you see.

Don't Panic, Stay in Control

If you lose early don't worry, the game is to win in the long run and patience can pay big dividends. Accept the fact that we all have good streaks and bad streaks. When they happen at the beginning of a season they can seem worse than they are. Many people press the panic button. Instead of increasing your dollar amounts or playing more games than usual; try cutting back. Lower your dollar amount. Make fewer plays. Take your time and use the method that has been best for you. If you hit the calm button, chances are you will get through it with minimum damage.

These points only represent a fraction of interesting and distinct factors to look at early season games with. Nonetheless they are an excellent starting point to getting to goal of making money in the first segment of the season. The games and handicapping changes greatly and quickly after the first couple weeks. There is short window of opportunity for these points to profit. But if you consider them year in and year out chances are they will be a useful tool for years to come.