NFL Football Handicapping

NFL Week One Betting Preview Extravaganza!

by BetUS Staff

The wait is finally over! Since February 3rd, 2008, the NFL betting community has been starving for some real football action. We’ve all read the magazines, checked the trade market, the free-agent frenzy and watched all the training camp news. Now it’s time to put all that knowledge and pent-up excitement to good use. You guessed it – Week 1 of the NFL is upon us!

The season opens with Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants on Thursday September 4th, 2008. The Giants are coming off a week that saw them lose their star defensive player, Osi Umenyiora, to a serious knee injury.

Any coaxing to get Michael Strahan out of retirement failed, and I don’t blame the gap-toothed stopper for wanting to end his career on top. The Giants are 3-point favorites in that, but I would bet on Washington getting their season off to the right start.

Then we roll the clock forward to Sunday, Sunday, Sunday! Every team is in action, and BetUS.com has the best lines for all the big games kicking off. Here’s a rundown of all the online betting action coming your way in Week 1. Check back frequently to the new and improved BetUS.com Locker Room for all your football betting needs! We’ve got your game.

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EARLY GAMES

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

NFL Betting Line: PICK (39)

The Bengals are facing a myriad of injuries from Chad Johnson’s messed up shoulder to Carson Palmer’s broken face. The Bengals have been a betting nightmare over the past two seasons, falling to a 23-23-2 ATS record over the past three seasons. Their strength is in their offense, but injuries to all their stars is putting that threat in jeopardy.

The Ravens, after a season of struggle last year, have handed the ball to Heisman winner, Troy Smith, who was strong during the pre-season. I don’t expect the Ravens to steamroll the Bengals, but you can safely bet on the Ravens to protect Smith by unleashing Willis McGahee against a weak Bengals defense that allowed 118.31 rushing yards against per game.

NFL Free Picks:Baltimore (UNDER)

 

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

NFL Betting Line: NYJ -3.5 (36)

Chad Pennington will face his old team in week one, surrounded by a team that is struggling to find itself. Ricky Williams returns, and has been a stud in the pre-season. His return will lessen the loss of Ronnie Brown as he recovers from a strained thumb, and that horrific knee injury from last season. Miami is 3-14 ATS against the AFC East.

Brett Favre makes his debut for the Jets, but he’s not the only one. I expect Mangini and the new-look New York Jets to plow through the Dolphins in south beach. The Jets have a very strong offense, and will continue their 6-0 ATS road record against a Miami team that has nobody to throw the ball too.

NFL Free Picks: NYJ -3.5 (OVER)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

NFL Betting Line: New England -16.5 (46.5)

A new NFL betting season and the Patriots are still getting silly spreads. The Patriots struggled to find their groove against the spread last year, especially with these monster spreads. Though KC isn’t much of a team, the tandem of Dwayne Bowe and Larry Johnson will do some damage against a secondary that will have trouble stuffing the run and controlling the pass. KC is one of those teams that I expect the oddsmakers to fall asleep on.

NFL Free Picks: KC +16.5 (OVER)

Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Betting Line: Pit -6.5 (43.5)

Houston and Pittsburgh are both teams with plenty to prove. The Steel-Curtain remains, as Pittsburgh returns one of the best defenses from the 2007 NFL season. However, their new offense looks to score in bunches. Rashard Mendenhall has looked tremendous in the pre-season, and will continue a streak of 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. Expect that streak to continue as they match their top-ranked defense with an insanely explosive offense that will far exceed the 24.56 points they averaged last year.

NFL Free Picks: Pitt -6.5 (OVER)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

NFL Betting Line: Jax -3 (37)

The battle for the Wild Card begins with Jacksonville against Tennessee. I have split feeling about both teams. I think that Jacksonville is a bit overhyped, and Tennessee is underrated. The problem is that everyone has underestimated the Titans against their own division, despite a 10-2 ATS record against the AFC South. Vince Young starts the season healthy, with no weapons, and with an inexcusable spread victory to start the season.

Don’t bet against Tennessee’s stiff run defense allowing Mojo and Fred Taylor to open up the rushing attack of Jacksonville. Jeff Fisher has proven impossible to beat at home (unless you’re the Colts).

NFL Free Picks: Tennessee -3 (UNDER)

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons

NFL Betting Line: Det -3.5 (41)

The Lions and Falcons are both so miserable right now that this is one of those games I won’t even be tuning in to. Aside from Matt Ryan’s obvious and expected struggles, the only other thing to watch is how Detroit’s rushing attack responds. Detroit finished last season with an inexplicable 0-8 ATS record against sub .500 teams, and that means bad things when facing the worst of the worst in A-Town.

But how can you reasonably bring yourself to bet on the Falcons this year? Until Matt Ryan grades out, this is a stay away game. But if you twisted my arm:

NFL Free Picks: Det -3.5 (UNDER)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills

NFL Betting Line: Sea -1 (39.5)

Seattle has already claimed the unofficial throne in the NFC West. They return this season with a more established rushing game headed by Julius Jones who was shipped in from Dallas. The problem is that Seattle does not handle the road well, and Buffalo is not an easy place to play.

The Bill shave plenty to prove. And an up-and-coming team in the AFC will always trounce the king of a terrible division in my books. I loved Buffalo last year, and I love them for this betting season as well.

NFL Free Picks: Buf +1 (OVER)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

NFL Betting Line: NO -3.5 (42.5)

The showdown between the top-two teams in the NFC South begins in Week 1, leaving no time to waste. So many questions abound in this matchup that I don’t even know where to start. Is Earnest Graham the real deal? Is Reggie Bush? How does Jeff Garcia respond to the Brett Favre drama in Tampa? Is Shockey still a cancer?

Of course, all those questions are offensive. The truth is that the defense in Tampa ranked third in points against with only 16.68 points against. The other stat I love is the betting trends that the underdog is 11-2 ATS and 10-3 SU when these two teams face each other.

NFL Free Picks: Tampa +3.5 (OVER)

St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Betting Line: Phi -7 (44)

The Rams are 0-9 ATS against teams that are strong with the pass, and there are few quarterbacks that can do what Donavan McNabb is capable of when healthy. McNabb needs plenty of weapons, and his no-name bunch of receivers will do an adequate job, but this game falls down to the fact that St. Louis is still two-three years away from coming out of the shadows. The Eagles are the sexy dark-horse pick of the NFC, and Donavan knows that the clock is ticking. Expect some tick-tick-boom as Philadelphia opens the season with a bang.

NFL Free Picks: Philadelphia -7 (OVER)

AFTERNOON ACTION:

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns

NFL Betting Line: Dal -4.5 (48.5)

Who wants to score some touchdowns?? The Cowboys visit the Browns and try to make a claim to the NFC title with a win over one of the favorites to win the AFC. The Browns are a punchy team that was phenomenal at home last season. They went 7-1 ATS last season at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Considering they only improved from last year, on both sides of the ball, I don’t encourage the thought of betting against them.

Dallas improved as well, adding Pacman Jones and Felix Jones (not related) along with bringing back the nucleus of their amazing offensive force. However, they were only 5-3 ATS when they were away from the great state of Texas, and the thought of the Browns at home with points I too enticing for my liking.

NFL Free Picks: Cleveland +4.5 (OVER)

Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers

NFL Betting Line: San Diego -9 (42.5)

With Steve Smith suspended, Jake Delhomme’s arm falling off and both offensive and defensive lines showing glimpses of age, the Carolina Panthers are your “no chance in hell” team of 2008! Congrats, and welcome to a boot stomping courtesy of the Superchargers. With or without Merrimen, the Chargers are an infinitely better team.

NFL Free Picks: San Diego -9 (OVER)

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

NFL Betting Line: Ari -2.5 (41.5)

The over-hyped team of 2006 clashes with the over-hyped team of 2007! Too bad our hype machine is broken (thank goodness). The Niners have sided J.T. O’Sullivan while the Cards went old-school with Kurt Warner. As a road team, the Cards were 2-4-1 ATS and the Niners are actually much better than people think. The Cardinals opened up last season with a loss to San Fran, and I expect the same to repeat itself this season.

NFL Free Picks: SF +2.5 (UNDER)

UNDER THE LIGHTS

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Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts

NFL Betting Line: IND -9.5 (44)

The Bears will visit the new stadium in Indy to take on the Colts, who are operating at full steam after a disappointing 2007 campaign. While they finished 13-3 SU, the Colts ended up with a 9-7 ATS record that saw them go 8-6 ATS as favorites. At home they were 5-3 SU.

Christening Lucas Oil Stadium by shattering the Chicago Bears would not only be appropriate, it is almost expected. The colts had the best points-against average last season, with only 16.38 points against. Do you really think a Bears offense with no rushing component can dethrone the Colts?

NFL Free Picks:Indianapolis -9.5 (UNDER)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

NFL Betting Line: GB -3 (38.5)

In what appears to be a must-see game for the NFC North betting investors, I’ll make this much more simple than you think it is. The Minnesota defensive line will be one of the best in the league, if not the best. However, their top ranked rushing defense will be overcast by their poor secondary, which saw them as the worst passing defense in the league.

And the truth is that Green Bay is returning with the exact same roster that catapulted them to a 12-3-1 ATS record last season. Aaron Rodgers is better than you think. Way better. Research why he was drafted by Green Bay and you’ll understand. He’s had three seasons to incubate and is ready. You can tell it in the way he carried himself through this whole Favre drama. He’s ready to prove himself, and he’ll start by beating up on the Vikings, who will have much more difficulty scoring this season than you imagine.

NFL Free Picks: GB -3 (OVER)

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

NFL Betting Line: Den -2.5 (41.5)

On the road last season, the Denver Broncos went 1-7 ATS, and Oakland opens up as home dogs. Not a good sign if you like betting on the Broncos. Denver added a plethora of defensive players, but all that will be moot when the Oakland Raiders open the flood gates on their rushing attack.

Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are all capable of 1000+ yard seasons, and they’ll start by dismantling a rushing defense that allowed 142.5 yards against last season on the ground. Oakland last season was a mess. This year they right the flagship of the Silver and Black by clipping some Broncos and pacing the evolution of Russell and McFadden as their new leaders.

NFL Free Picks: Oakland +2.5 (UNDER)

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